Money, name recognition fueled victors in U.S. House, Senate races
Editor's note: This story from The Bloomington Herald-Times is being published here as a courtesy for readers of IU in the News.
By Megan Banta
Television advertising and name recognition bolstered the candidates who largely coasted to victory in the 9th Congressional District primaries and the U.S. Senate Republican primary.
U.S. Rep. Todd Young won the Republican nomination for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by Dan Coats — and a chance at a rematch with former U.S. Rep. Baron Hill — beating U.S. Rep. Marlin Stutzman by about 34 points and taking home victories in more than 80 percent of the state's 92 counties.
That margin was wider than polls predicted, but Andy Downs said it's key to remember that statewide polls also had around 25 percent of voters saying they hadn't decided between the two candidates.
Downs, director of the Mike Downs Center on Indiana Politics at Indiana University Purdue University Fort Wayne, said bad news for Stutzman, including stories about questionable campaign finance decisions, likely pushed undecided voters toward Young.
Paul Helmke, a professor of practice at Indiana University's School of Public and Environmental Affairs, agreed that those stories certainly didn't work in Stutzman's favor.
"That knocks you back before you've even gotten started," Helmke said.
But the biggest factor in Young's victory was media, both political experts said.
Helmke said while many likely assumed the two candidates started on even playing fields with a sure base in their congressional districts, Young actually started with the advantage because "Stutzman's (district) doesn't tie into the Indianapolis media."
Stutzman, predictably, carried nearly every county in the 3rd Congressional District, which he represents, as well as other counties in northeastern Indiana, although he lost in Blackford County by nearly 40 points.
Young won in every other county and won by wider margins in the 9th Congressional District, which he currently represents, than Stutzman did in his home district.
Downs attributed the difference to coverage and name recognition.
By having multiple ads in the Indianapolis media market and "maybe even Evansville," Young had a distinct advantage, he said.
Helmke added that Young had more ads, allowing his marketing to push through the noise in a busy election year, while Stutzman's more limited advertising had trouble cutting through.
"It was tough for him (Stutzman) to get any sort of statewide momentum," he said.
Downs also tied Young's victory to fundraising and strategy.
"Young, obviously, raised a lot more money than Stutzman and, I think somewhat wisely, decided not to campaign in the northeastern part of the state as much," Downs said.
Young both raised and spent more money, doling out about $3.4 million compared with Stutzman's $2.2 million.
In the end, Young got more bang for his buck, spending $5.14 per vote while Stutzman spent $6.72 per vote.
He also had more outside spending in his favor.
Three outside groups favoring Young spent a combined $1.9 million on a combination of get-out-the-vote efforts, television advertising and online ads.
Stutzman had more groups spending in his favor, but the six groups that supported him only spent a little more than $130,000 and focused on online advertising and mailings instead of more expensive television advertising.
Outside groups gave Young a clear spending advantage, allowing him to leverage $8.02 per vote. Stutzman's support from outside groups only bumped his effective spending to $7.12 per vote.
9th District
Money also made a difference in the heated five-way contest for the Republican nomination to the 9th Congressional District seat that Young is vacating to run for Senate.
Trey Hollingsworth, a businessman and political outsider living in Jeffersonville, won that race with 33.5 percent of the vote. State Sen. Erin Houchin of Salem and Attorney General Greg Zoeller came the closest to the victor, pulling in 25.1 percent and 21.8 percent, respectively. State Sen. Brent Waltz of Greenwood and Bloomington engineer Robert Hall trailed even further behind with 13 percent of the vote and 6.6 percent, respectively.
That was despite a push in the final weeks leading up to election on the part of the other candidates to discredit Hollingsworth as a carpetbagger trying to buy a congressional seat, as the business owner moved to Indiana less than a year ago and dumped more than $1 million of his own money into the campaign.
Downs said that spending is what made the difference for Hollingsworth.
"Even though I tell people you don't have to have the most money to win an election, you do have to have enough," Downs said. "He clearly had a lot of money."
The other factor working in Hollingsworth's favor was the sheer amount of money he spent, which raised the overall cost of the campaign, Downs said.
None of the other candidates even spent one third of the money Hollingsworth did. In fact, he spent about $630,000 more than the other candidates combined.
He also had more than $350,000 in outside money spent in his favor that the other candidates combined. All of that outside money came from a SuperPAC called Indiana Jobs Now, which was funded solely by Hollingsworth's father, according to reports filed with the Federal Election Commission.
With that spending behind him, Hollingsworth leveraged more than $42 per vote. Waltz was the closest to that figure, with his own spending and outside spending resulting in $14.57 per vote. Houchin trailed at $9.13 per vote and Zoeller at $8.41 per vote, and Hall spent a mere 73 cents per vote.
That spending gap meant Hollingsworth had the most television ads, by far, and had the longest-running ads.
"Here's one where the television advertising did pay off for Hollingsworth," Helmke said. "He had tons of TV."
And while that isn't always a factor in more high-profile races, it makes a difference in crowded races that are further down the ballot for one major reason, Helmke said. That reason is name recognition.
"When you're in a down-ballot race, name recognition is what wins for you," Helmke said.
Because people "generally don't know state senators that well and even attorney generals," the television advertising ended up being a big factor, he said.
Houchin was the only candidate besides Hollingsworth to even win a county.
She won her home of Washington County with more than 50 percent of the vote, and she also took four adjacent counties, three of which are in the district she represents in the Indiana Senate.
Hollingsworth won the rest with at least 30 percent of the vote, including in Waltz's home of Johnson County, a Republican stronghold in the northern part of the district; Floyd County, where Zoeller's hometown of New Albany is; and Hall's home turf in Monroe County.
In the race on the other side of the ballot for that seat, though, no candidate came close to Monroe County Council member Shelli Yoder, who won the Democratic nomination with 70.1 percent of the vote. The closest candidate was Bob Kern, who garnered 11.6 percent. James McClure and Bill Thomas trailed even further behind with 10.4 percent and 7.9 percent, respectively.
Yoder reported spending $68,954, or $1.58 per vote, while no reports are available on the other three Democrats.
Helmke said Yoder's decisive victory was exactly what he expected.
Downs pointed to Yoder's run for the seat against Young back in 2012, when she lost by 10 points to an incumbent in a district that had been redrawn to include Johnson County, which nearly always favors Republicans.
"People really liked the effort she put in the first time she ran," Downs said. "This was one of those instances where people said that past performance, that is worth rewarding in the future."
He said that's particularly true because Democrats see the open seat as winnable.